522
FXUS62 KCAE 070113
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
913 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DECREASE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EVER
SO SLIGHTLY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TD CHANTAL IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
WHAT IS LEFT OF TD CHANTAL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND IS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. AS A RESULT, A RELAXING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT, IN THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A RETURN OF THE HEAT TO START OFF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK SHOULD FEATURE HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WE WON'T SEE MUCH DECREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS EVEN WITH CHANTAL DEPARTING THE REGION, WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT SEASONAL AROUND 105-120% OF NORMAL.
GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES EARLY THIS WEEK. WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COLUMN, A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS TO BE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SHEAR AND THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION
WILL BE LIMITED, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HEAT FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WEAKENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS WELL, PROVIDING BETTER
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE
(PW VALUES >1.9"). AT THE SURFACE, THE REGION MAY SEE THE RETURN OF
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,
WE'LL WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS A RESULT OF THE
SEABREEZE WORKING INLAND. HEIGHT DECREASES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHICH
SHOULD ALSO HELP HEAT INDICES RETREAT FROM WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGITS.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY 15Z. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COMING WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page