908
FXUS62 KCAE 070537
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DECREASE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EVER
SO SLIGHTLY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- QUIET AND HOT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA,
WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA IN ITS WAKE. THERE IS SOME WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CSRA AT THIS HOUR, WITH THIS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. ASIDE FORM THIS, THE WEATHER LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THE
DAY. SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
AND HEIGHTS RISE. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING GIVEN HOW MOISTURE RICH THE LOW-
LEVELS ARE. IN GENERAL, THOUGH, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PRETTY SPARSE COVERAGE WISE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 90S. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT ANY REMAINING CONVECTION
TO DIMINISH QUICKLY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- VERY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR VERY HOT AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SPREAD OVER THE AREA, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD AID IN KEEPING AFTERNOON RAINFALL COVERAGE CONFINED TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND
CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 90S, THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING
HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK UP TO AROUND 105.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HEAT FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE THINKING AND
FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY, WHILE AT THE SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SHOULD SET
UP. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH, AND THIS WILL ALSO AID IN BRINGING THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK DOWN BELOW 100. PWAT VALUES STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, AND DO EXPECT TO SEE
A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, DUE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH, LEE-TROUGH CONVERGENCE, AND ANY INLAND MOVING
SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT, WITH WINDS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN
ADDITION, ANY SLOWER MOVING ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED AT ALL TAF SITES AS OF THIS HOUR. SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, AND EVEN LIGHT SHOWERS, MAY MAKE IT TO
THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z AS A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY
HOLDS TOGETHER, THOUGH. THE REST OF THE DAY IS PRETTY STRAIGHT
FORWARD. CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
ENOUGH NOT TO MAKE EXPLICIT MENTION OF IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
GENERALLY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COMING
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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