040
FXUS62 KCAE 071750
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARE PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS TEMPERATURES CRANK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THE RESULT IS SBCAPE AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5" TOWARD THE UPSTATE
TO NEARLY 2" SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP, AND WE CAN
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW WITH ACTIVITY BEING MOSTLY DRIVEN BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF ANY ADDITIONAL SURFACE OR UPPER AIR
FEATURES TO AID IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW. IN GENERAL, CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET, AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 70S AS
MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE STATE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT MORE SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED, A
COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: SUMMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AND AIDS IN TRAPPING ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT'S LIKELY BETWEEN 1.8-2.0" ACROSS
THE AREA. STRONG INSOLATION AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR THE NAFES 90TH
PERCENTILE BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
UP TO AROUND 105F. LITTLE FORCING FOR CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF
REACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMP AND THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE BULK SHEAR
GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AND MLCAPE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG,
LEADING TO PULSE CONVECTION WITH THE OFF CHANCE FOR A CLUSTER OR
TWO, THOUGH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITH DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MIXING, MODERATE DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG GUSTS.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WINDS DOWN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE PATTERN CHANGES A BIT TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND AT THE SURFACE, SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS.
THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT, BUT STILL NEAR
AVERAGE, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, PERHAPS
INCREASING SOME AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
INCREASES EVER SO SLIGHTLY. WITH PWAT'S RAISING NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE 2" AND SOME WEAK FORCING, SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD WHERE A COUPLE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RAP,NAM,AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
TUESDAY (MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 1700-2500 J/KG) AND INVERTED V
PROFILES IN THE MIXING LAYER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST AT
BEST WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THUS A STRONG PULSE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST RISK IN ANY STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE POTENTIAL DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS, HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE FA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
AS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY, MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE AND PWAT'S AROUND 120-125% OF
NORMAL. MACHINE LEARNING PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHT THAT SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER DAY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME INDICATION
IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT WEAK RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
IN, LOWERING POP'S SOME WITH THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS SUGGESTING
PWAT'S RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
LIKELY REMAIN SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CUMULUS AOA 4KFT MSL STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, BECOMING
SCT-BKN WITH ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MAKE EXPLICIT MENTION OF PRECIP IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY SLY/SWLY INTO THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KTS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER
DECREASING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY TUESDAY MORNING, SWLY AROUND 8 KTS. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS LOW TONIGHT, THROUGH SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICALLY PRONE AGS/OGB AROUND DAYBREAK.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COMING
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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