218
FXUS62 KCAE 080040
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
840 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NONE.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
SOME LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING WARMING CLOUD TOPS OWING TO A LOSS
OF INSTABILITY WITH THE SETTING SUN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING
HIGH LEADING TO A MUGGY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT MORE SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED, A
COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: SUMMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AND AIDS IN TRAPPING ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT'S LIKELY BETWEEN 1.8-2.0" ACROSS
THE AREA. STRONG INSOLATION AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR THE NAEFS
90TH PERCENTILE BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
UP TO AROUND 105F. LITTLE FORCING FOR CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF
REACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMP AND THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE BULK SHEAR
GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AND MLCAPE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG,
LEADING TO PULSE CONVECTION WITH THE OFF CHANCE FOR A CLUSTER OR
TWO, THOUGH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITH DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MIXING, MODERATE DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG GUSTS.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WINDS DOWN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE PATTERN CHANGES A BIT TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND AT THE SURFACE, SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS.
THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT, BUT STILL NEAR
AVERAGE, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, PERHAPS
INCREASING SOME AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
INCREASES EVER SO SLIGHTLY. WITH PWAT'S RAISING NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE 2" AND SOME WEAK FORCING, SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD WHERE A COUPLE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RAP,NAM,AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
TUESDAY (MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 1700-2500 J/KG) AND INVERTED V
PROFILES IN THE MIXING LAYER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST AT
BEST WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THUS A STRONG PULSE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST RISK IN ANY STRONGER STORM
WOULD BE POTENTIAL DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS, HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE FA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
AS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY, MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE AND PWAT'S AROUND 120-125% OF
NORMAL. MACHINE LEARNING PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHT THAT SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER DAY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME INDICATION
IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT WEAK RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
IN, LOWERING POP'S SOME WITH THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS SUGGESTING
PWAT'S RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
LIKELY REMAIN SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED CONVECTION GENERALLY ENDING THIS EVENING AND SHOULD NOT
BE A ISSUE AT TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5
KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOME
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THEN
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
POSSIBLE RIVER FOG WHICH MAY IMPACT OGB/AGS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN SO INCLUDED A PROB30 ALL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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