311
FXUS62 KCAE 080941
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
541 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HOT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
VERY HOT AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK
THERMAL LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE UPSTATE OF SC THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY OF THIS WILL
LIKELY ACT AS THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON; HREF
INSTABILITY FIELDS DEPICT A NOTABLE CAPE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS BY 18Z. THIS TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE OVERNIGHT MOISTURE
PRESENCE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60'S IN THE UPSTATE AND
IN THE MID-70'S HERE IN THE MIDLANDS. SO AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90'S, SOME WEAK MESOSCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THIS TROUGH-MOISTURE GRADIENT. INSTABILITY EVEN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AROUND 1250-1750 OR SO J/KG OF ML CAPE, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE BIT OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING.
DCAPE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH WITH A DEEP INVERTED V, SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR 100 F, AND DECENTLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, SO
SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NOT AS HOT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARD.
- HIGH PWATS THROUGH THE PERIOD, COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW, SUGGEST A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION.
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL HAVE AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IMPACT
WILL BE LOWER TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FA WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FAVORED ON
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING TROUGH COULD
AID IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CAMS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED IN THE UPSTATE ON WEDNESDAY
HEADING EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF A STRONG TRIGGER, PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FAVORED AND COULD ALSO FORM THROUGH COLLIDING MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. INVERTED-V
MODELED SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD THOUGH THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE DUE TO THE PULSE ENVIRONMENT. THE DAY 2
(WEDNESDAY) AND DAY 3 (THURSDAY) SPC SWO PLACES THE ENTIRE CWA
IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK, WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE
PARAMETERS. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR ON THURSDAY THOUGH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGH LEVELS OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
THURSDAY. THE DAY 2 WPC ERO PLACES THE ENTIRE FA IN AT LEAST A
MARGINAL (1/4) RISK WITH A SLIGHT (2/4) NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER. THE DAY 3 ERO LIMITS THE MARGINAL RISK TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE HIGH MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW IN
ADDITION TO LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN MODELED SOUNDINGS FAVOR
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING THIS
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING LIKELY RETURNS.
- MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING
THE EXTENDED, LOWER DURING THE WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE CONUS ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING LIKELY
RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG TERM WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES. FRIDAY MAY END UP SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE
ISOLATED THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
CALM AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE TAF SITES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME MORNING RIVER
FOG AT AGS OR OGB, BUT CONFIDENCE FAR TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN
THE TAFS. WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z
WITH TYPICAL SUMMER CU DEVELOPING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, BUT EXACT TIMING AND
CONVERGENCE CONFIDENCE ONLY WARRANTS A PROB30 FOR NOW. BUT AT
LEAST SOME IMPACTS, VICINITY OR AT THE SITE, ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL THE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
SHOULD CALM DOWN AFTER 00Z WITH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON RAINFALL TOTALS AND COVERAGE.EXPECTED
AGAIN SO INCLUDED A PROB30 ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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