332
FXUS62 KCAE 090134
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. A COUPLE STRONGER
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE IN THE LATE WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NONE.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON HAVING
DISSIPATED WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MUGGY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID-70S.
SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
- HIGH PWATS EACH DAY COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR DAYS, THOUGH
WEDNESDAY IS PERHAPS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. A UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EACH DAY AS
RIDGING BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED BY THIS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YIELDS PWAT'S THAT APPROACH 2.1-2.2", PERHAPS
A BIT LOWER INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, SOME LEE TROUGHING
IS EXPECTED AND EVIDENT IN MOST CAM'S BY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN FA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. WHILE FORCING IS
GENERALLY ON THE WEAKER SIDE EACH DAY, MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED WITH THE HREF MEAN SBCAPE APPROACHING
2500 TO 2800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND FORECASTING SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PULSE TO A COUPLE MESSY
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO FORM IN THE CONVERGENT ZONE AND ALSO ALONG
THE INLAND PUSHING SEA-BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING EACH DAY. STRONG INVERTED V PROFILES BRING MODERATE TO
STRONG DCAPE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES
ALOFT, WEAK DEEP LAYER, AND WEAK STEERING FLOW, PRECIPITATION
LOADING COULD LEAD TO SOLID DOWNBURSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
AND THUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM. DUE TO THIS, THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) EACH DAY ACROSS THE FA, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) THAT CLIPS THE FAR NW CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SEVERE RISK, ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING RISK, WHERE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WHOLE CWA WEDNESDAY AND A
SLIGHT RISK THAT CLIPS THE NORTHERN FA (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4).
ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS SEEN MAINLY ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION
ON THURSDAY. HREF MEMBERS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY DEPICT A BATCH
A SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING TOWARD THE NORTHERN FA ALONG A
CONVERGENT ZONE, AS WELL AS ALONG THE INLAND PUSHING SEA-BREEZE.
INTERACTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH AND
STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COUPLED WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
HIGH PWAT'S, BRING THE RISK FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS OF
INTERACTING STORMS/BOUNDARIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE EARLY WEEK WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING
THE EXTENDED.
THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS GENERALLY SHOW THIS UPPER TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE OUT ON FRIDAY, WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD BACK IN, BEFORE FULLY BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS PWAT'S REMAIN SEASONABLY HIGH. IN TERMS OF
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ON FRIDAY AS
RIDGING STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED BEFORE RETURNING TO
TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION AND MORNING STRATUS.
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE DAY WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAINING
OVER THE REGION. THESE HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME BRIEF
MORNING STRATUS WITH SOME MOS GUIDANCE AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A COUPLE OF HOURS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WITH PICK UP TO 6 TO 8
KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SO INCLUDED A PROB30
FOR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page