824
FXUS62 KCAE 100526
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS REPLACED BY RIDGING
THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY MINIMAL HEIGHT FALLS BUT PWAT'S OVER
2.0" AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS-STORMS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS, NOW OVER THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
THEREFORE PROVIDE SOME FASTER STORM MOTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT DEEP CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS STILL
MINIMAL, ONLY 10-15 KNOTS. SO THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL STILL BE
PULSE, BUT WITH SOME TRANSLATIONAL SPEED TODAY. FROM AN
INSTABILITY STANDPOINT, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
1500-2000 J/KG ML CAPE TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT, SO DCAPE'S LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE
LOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A WIDESPREAD
FIELD OF CONVECTION BY 20Z, WHICH REALISTICALLY WILL BE 18-19Z.
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG
I-95, IS FAVORED FROM AN INITIATION AND INSTABILITY PERSPECTIVE.
SO OVERALL, ANOTHER QUANTITY OVER QUALITY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE.
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FLIPS AROUND SOMEWHAT TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED BUT ALSO MORE
SENSITIVE BASINS AFTER YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL. SO SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY, AS PWAT'S REMAIN ABOVE 2.0", SOME WIDESPREAD NUISANCE
FLOODING IS LIKELY AND A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE IF WE DEVELOP ANY TRAINING STORMS; HREF LPPM SUGGESTS A
FEW AREAS OF TRAINING, WITH A HIGH END POTENTIAL AGAIN OF 3-5"
LIKE WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER EACH DAY, WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY, WITH A SLOW RISE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. PWATS REMAIN HIGH, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY, SO
WHILE NO FORCING WILL BE PRESENT, SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL DEVELOP. ANY
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG,
PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH. AS IS TYPICAL WITH PULSE
CONVECTION, STORM POSITION AND MOTION WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED
BY THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM
CONVECTION ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.
- UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BE STRONGEST AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE NEXT SEVEN, WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
ALSO BE LOWEST ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHEN WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIKELY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS-STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, IMPACTING ALL
TAF SITES.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN GA AND SC.
SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT AGS AND DNL AS RESULT,
BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SOME STRATUS IS THEN POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPACTS LIKELY
AT ALL TAF SITES. EXACT TIMING CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT LOW, SO
INCLUDING A PROB30 AND VCTS GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. EVENTUALLY A
TEMPO OR PREDOMINANT WILL BE NEEDED FROM ROUGHLY 19-01Z. WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SUSTAINED 8- 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KNOTS (OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS).
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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