215
FXUS62 KCAE 110539
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN STORE, HOT WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
AROUND.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH
SOME WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS THIS TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH, MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE WEST BY LATER THIS MORNING AND SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND SUBTLE DRY ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON. PWAT'S HOWEVER WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH, BETWEEN
1.75-2.0" FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SO OVERALL, THESE WILL BLEND
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 90'S AND A HANDFUL OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED, GIVEN THE ONLY
1000-1500 ML CAPE, BUT SOME INCREASING DCAPE THANKS TO THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD STILL YIELD SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY. SO A MORE QUALITY OVER QUANTITY
WITH REGARDS TO THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY, QUITE THE OPPOSITE TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT INDICES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE LOWEST ON SUNDAY.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM WHICH
SHOULD AID IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION EACH DAY. HAVING SAID
THAT, THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, COMBINING WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WHICH COULD
BE A BIT HIGHER ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
REGARDLESS OF FORMAL CRITERIA BEING MET IN OUR FA, PROPER
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN WHILE OUTDOORS DURING PEAK HEATING
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN INTO THE MID-WEEK, BRINGING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED. THE UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LONG TERM. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS.
SOME ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, SOME WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
STEADILY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TAF SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 1500Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS, 6-10 KNOTS, AND TYPICAL SUMMER CU WILL
DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, FAR LESS WIDESPREAD THAN WED-THURSDAY, BUT
ENOUGH TO STILL WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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