966
FXUS62 KCAE 111710
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK RIDGING IS MOVING OVER THE REGION AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON EXPECTED; HOT WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS AROUND.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT, WHICH IS
LEADING TO SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE. THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS
MORNING ARE STILL SLOWLY MIXING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
THAT CLEARED OUT EARLIER HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 WHILE AREAS
THAT ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER ARE IN
THE MID 80S IN GENERAL. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY STARTING IN THE CSRA
WHERE THE STRATUS DECK CLEARED OUT SEVERAL HOURS AGO. SOME
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS WE ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF AN
INVERTED V DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR. AS SUCH, ANY ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. OVERNIGHT, NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT INDICES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THIS WEEKEND AND TOWARD MONDAY, AIDING IN BRINGING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES LIKELY REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105F, JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LIKELY ARE THE HOTTEST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEKEND
STARTS WITH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING CRITERIA MAINLY MONDAY IS LOW
TO MEDIUM. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER CHANCES, A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANCES IS EXPECTED AS RIDGING AIDS IN SOME SUPPRESSION, BUT
PWAT'S DO REMAIN BETWEEN 1.7-2.0", THUS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE PULSE STORMS TO FORM
WITH A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODEST
TO STRONG INSTABILITY EACH DAY DOES BRING THE CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH MODERATE DCAPE
VALUES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH STORMS NOT MOVING VERY QUICK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AS A DIFFUSE UPPER LOW WEAKENS RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.
RECENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE GULF. AS THIS
MOVES INTO THE GULF, STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC (AROUND 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL) DEVELOPS
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW TO TAKE
OVER IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE REGION, ALLOWING PWAT'S TO
REACH NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
COMBINED WITH SUBTLE FORCING SHOULD ALLOW MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WHERE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS THAT THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH MAY BEGIN SLIDING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
LOWER CEILINGS AT CAE/CUB HAVE STRUGGLED TO MIX OUT, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE CEILINGS
REACH VFR, THEY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY THERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THAT IS POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SO, HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP IN FROM 19Z-00Z. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IF STORMS ARE OVER OR NEAR THE
TERMINALS. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY AROUND 5 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AFTER
ABOUT 15Z. FOG AND STRATUS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, BUT IF
A LOCATION RECEIVES ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS OR VIS IN THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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