790
FXUS62 KCAE 120003
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
803 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK RIDGING IS MOVING OVER THE REGION AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING, THEN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. WITH
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW
DAYS, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. LOWS
OVERNIGHT CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 75 FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT INDICES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THIS WEEKEND AND TOWARD MONDAY, AIDING IN BRINGING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES LIKELY REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105F, JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LIKELY ARE THE HOTTEST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEKEND
STARTS WITH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING CRITERIA MAINLY MONDAY IS LOW
TO MEDIUM. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER CHANCES, A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANCES IS EXPECTED AS RIDGING AIDS IN SOME SUPPRESSION, BUT
PWAT'S DO REMAIN BETWEEN 1.7-2.0", THUS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE PULSE STORMS TO FORM
WITH A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODEST
TO STRONG INSTABILITY EACH DAY DOES BRING THE CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH MODERATE DCAPE
VALUES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH STORMS NOT MOVING VERY QUICK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AS A DIFFUSE UPPER LOW WEAKENS RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.
RECENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE GULF. AS THIS
MOVES INTO THE GULF, STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC (AROUND 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL) DEVELOPS
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW TO TAKE
OVER IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE REGION, ALLOWING PWAT'S TO
REACH NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
COMBINED WITH SUBTLE FORCING SHOULD ALLOW MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WHERE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS THAT THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH MAY BEGIN SLIDING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE AROUND ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 02Z, THEN EXPECT TO
SEE DIMINISHING COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY
RAINFALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF PATCHY GROUND FOG TOWARDS MORNING NEAR AREAS
THAT RECEIVED ANY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page