080
FXUS62 KCAE 120540
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK RIDGING IS MOVING OVER THE REGION AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
- SCATTERED STRONG STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWING ANOTHER
EVENING OF SCATTERED STORMS. GENERAL RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THIS PATTERN
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR DAY IN MANY RESPECTS TO FRIDAY;
EARLY MORNING STRATUS MAKES WAY FOR AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS. PWAT'S
AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS AROUND 2.0" AND WILL
REMAIN AROUND THERE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THIS IS DESPITE SOME
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 850-
500MB THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, INSTABILITY WILL CLIMB AGAIN TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ML CAPE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA, BASED ON THE HREF
SOUNDINGS AND THATS LIKELY A SLIGHT UNDER-ESTIMATE WITH SOME
OVER- MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK, LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT SHOULD HELP ADVECT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THEREFORE BUMP DCAPE UP A BIT,
BETWEEN 800-1000 J/KG. ENVIRONMENTALLY THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD
DOWNBURST SETUP, LIKE WE SAW IN SPOTS ON FRIDAY, AND THE HREF IS
A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. THE AREA HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO MARGINAL RISK TODAY FOR
THIS WIND THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANY TRAINING STORMS WILL
HAVE A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN THE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT INDICES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM, LIKELY RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE RIDGE
SHOULD HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. WHILE HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING,
THEREFORE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID HEAT
ILLNESSES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED DEVELOP
BOTH DAYS BUT SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO SOME EXTENT. HAVING SAID THAT, ANY
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
A MORE TYPICAL JULY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN AND THE REGION ENDS UP IN WEAK UPPER
FLOW WITH THE STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINING A WARM,
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. PWATS AROUND THE NAEFS 90TH
PERCENTILE THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
WILL FORM NEAR MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, INCLUDING THE SEA BREEZE.
A NEW UPPER RIDGE MAY DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRATUS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LATE EVENING STORMS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DECK
OF STRATUS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS GA AND SPREAD EAST. LIFR IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT AGS, DNL, AND OGB FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE AT CAE AND CUB. THE TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH PREDOMINANT AT
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SITES AND TEMPO AT CAE AND CUB FOR IFR, AS
THEY MAY REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THIS
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY AFTER 19Z BUT TAF IMPACTS EXPLICITLY ARE LESS CONFIDENT. SO A
PROB30 GROUP COVERS THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON, 6-10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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