020
FXUS62 KCAE 021701
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. CHANCES FOR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH
DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA, THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER, SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE COOL
LOW- LEVEL AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS
TODAY. WITH A RARE, SUMMERTIME FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND NE FLOW IN
PLACE WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY WITH OVERCAST OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
PWAT VALUES FROM THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOW 2 INCHES OR HIGHER FROM
CENTRAL SC AND SOUTH. MOISTURE ADVECTION FLOW OVER THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. CAMS GENERALLY SHOW THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE CSRA OR IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS, PEE DEE AND NEAR THE NC BORDER.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, RAIN EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STALLED FRONT KEEPS COOL AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED COLD FRONT
TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH THIS IN
MIND, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS, AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN. GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL
REACH AS A COOL, DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE UPSTATE. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WPC CONTINUES A
MARGINAL (1/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE NBM PROBABILITY OF SEEING
AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS 50% OR
GREATER. PWATS WILL BE HIGH SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WHILE THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER ANY PRODUCTS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
- THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD CONTINUES BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST DURING THE
EXTENDED, UPPER RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US FROM THE EAST DURING THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE,
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE,
POSSIBLY MOVING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS AND IF IT IS ABLE TO KEEP
WARM, MOIST AIR FROM MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION, AS
SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, THE NBM IS FAVORING
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, ALBEIT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM, BUT ANY HYDRO
ISSUES WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE RAIN FALLS AND HOW
HEAVY IT IS.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND MAY REFORM TONIGHT.
WITH A FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGING, WE WILL SEE MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 00Z. WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAINS
POSSIBLE LEADING TO BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, THE
PREDOMINANT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THERE A
CHANCE AT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BUT THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS IS NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES. TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE NEAR
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS IS HIGHEST FOR
THE AGS/DNL SITES. IF RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WE COULD SEE
THEM CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS COULD ALSO RETURN NEAR
THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...COOL, MOIST AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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