412
FXUS62 KCAE 030000
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED COLD FRONT KEEPS COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
MUCH COOLER, BUT STILL HUMID, TODAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOPPED OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING IN
THE CSRA. THIS WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
CLOUDS IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWER
CHANCES REMAINING MAINLY IN THE CSRA. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, BUT WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER, LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STALLED FRONT KEEPS COOL AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED COLD FRONT
TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH THIS IN
MIND, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS, AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN. GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL
REACH AS A COOL, DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE UPSTATE. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WPC CONTINUES A
MARGINAL (1/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE NBM PROBABILITY OF SEEING
AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS 50% OR
GREATER. PWATS WILL BE HIGH SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WHILE THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER ANY PRODUCTS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
- THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD CONTINUES BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST DURING THE
EXTENDED, UPPER RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US FROM THE EAST DURING THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE,
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE,
POSSIBLY MOVING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW STRONG THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS AND IF IT IS ABLE TO KEEP
WARM, MOIST AIR FROM MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION, AS
SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, THE NBM IS FAVORING
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, ALBEIT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM, BUT ANY HYDRO
ISSUES WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE RAIN FALLS AND HOW
HEAVY IT IS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COMBINATION OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT SOUTH OF THE CSRA, AND IS FORECAST TO
STILL STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VCSH BEING SHOWN ON
REGIONAL RADAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z, WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS RISING
INTO VFR ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, THEN REMAINING VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY, SO HAVE KEPT A DRY TAF AT THIS TIME IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE AT AGS/DNL, CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR, BUT
SHOULD DROP BACK TO INTO MVFR AFTER SUNSET AND FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOSENESS TO THE
FRONT. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING CEILINGS AT AGS/DNL SHOULD BEGIN
TO RISE BACK TO VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL POTENTIAL BY THAT POINT. HAVE SHOWED THAT TREND, AND
ALSO INCLUDED A PROB30 THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...COOL, MOIST AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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