164
FXUS62 KCAE 030609
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED COLD FRONT KEEPS COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN
SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY AND TEMPS RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
CSRA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE
NORTHERN AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH HREF MEAN PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
IN THE NORTH TO 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN AREA. EXPECT THE ENTIRE
AREA TO REMAIN ON THE STABLE, COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT TODAY WHICH
WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE SUN WILL BE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AREA WHERE THE DRIER AIR HAS
PUSHED IN. DEW POINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER TODAY, LEADING
TO MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE CLOSEST TO THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST. WHILE RAIN
IS LIKELY AT TIMES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA,
HREF PROBABILITIES ARE LOW IN TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH (GENERALLY 20-40%). THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS IN
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA, WHERE BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80F WHERE ELSEWHERE,
HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, INTO THE MID-80S. RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK.
THE "WEDGE FRONT" THAT PUSHED SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BROUGHT NOTABLE
DRY ADVECTION AND LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY RETURN PWAT'S TO NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT MONDAY AS WE COME AROUND THE INFLUENCE OF MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
POPS EXPECTED MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA. THE STORY IS
EFFECTIVELY THE EXACT SAME FOR TUESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
PROGRESSES VERY SLOWLY, BUT TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
80'S. WHILE POP'S ARE RELATIVELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ACROSS GUIDANCE IN TOTAL QPF; GEFS
AGAIN REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRY WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.0" TOTAL BOTH
DAYS BUT ECE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDESPREAD 1-2.5". THIS UNCERTAINTY
GENERALLY STEMS FROM THE RELATIVELY THE WEAK FORCING DRIVING THESE
SHOWERS EACH DAY, IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW, BUT NON-ZERO CAPE EACH
DAY. SO THIS IS A FAIRLY SENSITIVE SETUP WITH A BOOM OR BUST
POTENTIAL THAT GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH. DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT THIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A FLOOD THREAT COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CSRA BUT CONFIDENCE IS TRENDING DOWN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MID-LATE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL SLIDE EAST BUT BECOME GENERALLY MORE DIFFUSE
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM AND
MODERATE CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK, BUT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
PWAT'S FILLING IN, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NAEFS AND ECE ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR MID-LATE WEEK WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AS
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS, WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING EACH DAY. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS TRENDED
DOWN ACROSS THE LREF ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SC, WITH HIGHER
POTENTIAL CONTINUING IN THE CSRA. MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, THESE "WEAKLY" FORCED RAIN EVENTS TEND TO HAVE LOWER
PREDICTABILITY ACROSS GUIDANCE WITH HIGH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RAINFALL GRADIENTS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS, VFR ELSEWHERE.
THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGHEST AT THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS WHICH IS
LEADING TO MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING THERE WHILE VFR CEILINGS IN
PLACE AT CAE/CUB/OGB. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT AGS/DNL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT TIMES. WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, AT LEAST THROUGH 6Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...COOL, MOIST AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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