747
FXUS62 KCAE 031753
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET WEATHER IS FAVORED THIS WEEK AS A STALLED BOUNDARY LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, POTENTIALLY
WARMING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
THE FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND
1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH TO 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN AREA. WE
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THE HREF SHOWS THAT MODERATE OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FROM 20-40 PERCENT. RAIN WILL LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS IN
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA, WHERE BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80. ELSEWHERE,
HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, INTO THE MID-80S. RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
COLUMBIA AREA.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SLUGGISHLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FA, WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING PWATS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPS WEDGE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON MONDAY, LIKELY BREAKING DOWN ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING 1-2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT IS HIGHEST SOUTH AND WEST OF I-26, ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER A DRIER SOLUTION
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SHOWING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF COLUMBIA, WHILE THE EURO HAS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA. CAMS ARE FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION,
SUGGESTING THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY, WITH WARMER VALUES POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF COLUMBIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES COULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE
REGION WHILE WEAKENING. MEANWHILE, WEAK FORCING OVER THE CWA
LEADS TO MORE TYPICAL DAYTIME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS AT ODDS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WHEN THE GFS SUGGESTS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US,
POTENTIALLY MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS NORTH CAROLINA. FOR NOW,
HAVE MAINTAINED THE NBM SOLUTION, WHICH SHOWS DAILY RAIN
CHANCES AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THINGS MAY
BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF THE SOLUTION ADVERTISED IN THE GFS
PLAYS OUT, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGHEST TO THE
SOUTH NEAR THE FRONT AND COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT AGS AND DNL. OTHERWISE SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS WITH ENE WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KTS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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