804
FXUS62 KCAE 032331
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET WEATHER IS FAVORED THIS WEEK AS A STALLED BOUNDARY LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, POTENTIALLY
WARMING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS CONTINUE.
THE FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND
1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH TO 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH COVERAGE THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
COLUMBIA AREA.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SLUGGISHLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FA, WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING PWATS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPS WEDGE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON MONDAY, LIKELY BREAKING DOWN ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING 1-2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT IS HIGHEST SOUTH AND WEST OF I-26, ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER A DRIER SOLUTION
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SHOWING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF COLUMBIA, WHILE THE EURO HAS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA. CAMS ARE FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION,
SUGGESTING THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY, WITH WARMER VALUES POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF COLUMBIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES COULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE
REGION WHILE WEAKENING. MEANWHILE, WEAK FORCING OVER THE CWA
LEADS TO MORE TYPICAL DAYTIME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS AT ODDS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WHEN THE GFS SUGGESTS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US,
POTENTIALLY MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS NORTH CAROLINA. FOR NOW,
HAVE MAINTAINED THE NBM SOLUTION, WHICH SHOWS DAILY RAIN
CHANCES AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THINGS MAY
BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF THE SOLUTION ADVERTISED IN THE GFS
PLAYS OUT, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TAF SITE IS
LOCATED.
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH WEDGELIKE CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER
THE REGION. HIGHER SHOWER LIKELIHOOD, ALONG WITH LOWER IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, WILL EXIST NEAR AGS/DNL CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT LOCATION. MOST GUIDANCE IS DROPPING THOSE TWO
LOCATIONS INTO RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT, THEN KEEPING THEN
DOWN FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FURTHER NORTH AT CAE/CUB/OGB, HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
REMAINING VFR OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AND THIS TOO IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. EVEN IN THOSE
LOCATIONS THOUGH, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH VARIABILITY IN CEILINGS
REMAINING POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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