745
FXUS62 KCAE 041134
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET WEATHER IS FAVORED THIS WEEK AS A STALLED BOUNDARY LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, POTENTIALLY
WARMING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 1.8 TO AROUND 2 INCHES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND REINFORCE THE UNUSUAL AUGUST
PATTERN OF COLD AIR DAMMING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA, PERIODS OF RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TODAY BEGINNING THIS MORNING IN THE CSRA AND PIVOTING
INTO THE MIDLANDS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE OWING
TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PIVOTING
THROUGH THE OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE MID 70S IN THE CSRA TO
LOW 80S IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
PRECIP CHANCES AREA GENERALLY LOWER. COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE THE
FAIRLY RARE SUMMER CAD EVENT THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS THE DIFFUSE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST ONLY SLOWLY SLIDES EAST, PROVIDING ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT'S OVER
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING. 850MB WINDS AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH GENERALLY CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT, SO
COMBINED WITH PWAT'S NEAR 2.0", WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PWAT PLUME ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE STRONGEST 850MB FLOW SHOULD
FOCUS THE HIGHEST POP'S AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. THERE IS STILL NOTABLE INCONSISTENCY
ACROSS GUIDANCE, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING 1-3" THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA, DECREASING TO THE EAST. AS NOTED BEFORE,
THIS TYPE OF SETUP IS UNIQUE WITH A SUMMER WEDGE PROVIDING ONLY
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT THERE IS CONSISTENT, ALBEIT WEAK, CAPE
ALOFT. SO GUIDANCE WILL INHERENTLY STRUGGLE GIVEN THIS SET OF
SENSITIVE PARAMETERS. REGARDLESS, THERE IS A HIGHER END
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF STRONGER SHOWERS AND MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD YIELD THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUING WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- SOME OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FOR LATE WEEK.
THE VERY SLOW MOVING PATTERN REALLY WILL NEED CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HOWEVER
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER, ALONG WITH A GENERAL
WEAKENING THE LEE RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE THIS WILL
WEAKEN ISENTROPIC LIFT SOME, SURFACE HEATING WILL STEADILY PUSH US
BACK TOWARDS MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
PWAT'S WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION, SO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS-STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MOST INTERESTING
FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE LONGER TERM IS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST GUIDANCE NOW
SOMETHING FORMING UNDERNEATH WITHIN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SYNOPTIC LOW REGIME, SO WHATEVER DOES DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE
SOME TIME TO EXIT THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD GREATLY INCREASE OR DECREASE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
DEPENDING ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH LARGER SCALE MOISTURE FIELD,
DRIVING EITHER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION OR DRIER AIR
ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THIS MORNING DUE TO RAIN....
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, MAINLY IMPACTING
AGS/DNL AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES HIGHEST AT THE AUGUSTA AREA
TERMINALS. BRIEF VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT IN LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT AGS/DNL AS WELL BUT
GENERALLY THINKING ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY OUT OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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