875
FXUS62 KCAE 041706
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
106 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR DAMMING LINGERS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A COASTAL
LOW ERODES THE WEDGE THIS WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY DESPITE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STICK AROUND THIS WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDY AND COOL WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A FEW AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND TOWARDS
THE UPSTATE.
ANOTHER CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA COURTESY OF CONTINUED COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SHORTWAVES
PIVOT ALONG THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND TOWARDS THE UPSTATE.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
TERM, WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING AS
MANY AREAS ACROSS THE CWA ARE STARTING TO SEE SATURATED SOILS.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM, MANY LOCATIONS IN THE PEE
DEE MAY STAY DRY OR ONLY SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AS THEY ARE
FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY AUGUST
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S, HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK,
FAIRLY RARE COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL
ALLOW COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OFF TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND PROVIDE AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION (WITH PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES). RIBBONS OF VORTICITY
COUPLED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET THE SCENE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY ACROSS MODEL
GUIDANCE, BUT REMAINED WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN NOTABLY LESS RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE OF TRAINING WITH THESE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND IT
IS POSSIBLE TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUING WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- SOME OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FOR LATE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SIGNAL THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LEADING TO A
MORE, OR LESS, ACTIVE PERIOD DEPENDING ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD. THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFUSE AND THE LEE RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL START
TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LARGELY DRIVEN BY TYPICAL DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION, SO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THEN
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN EXPECTED....
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS, WITH AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVING
INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT DNL (AGS RECENTLY WENT
BACK INTO VFR) AND ARE LIKELY TO LOWER INTO IFR AT BOTH AUGUSTA
AREA TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AS WELL. THIS RAIN MAY
IMPACT CAE/CUB IN A FEW HOURS WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS. LOWERING
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COLUMBIA TERMINALS, FALLING INTO
IFR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT OGB, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE PASSING NEAR/OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING LOWERING CEILINGS HERE,
THOUGH ONLY MVFR IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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