426
FXUS62 KCAE 050010
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR DAMMING LINGERS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A COASTAL
LOW ERODES THE WEDGE THIS WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY DESPITE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STICK AROUND THIS WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE CSRA AND THE UPSTATE.
ANOTHER DAY WEDGED IN CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SIT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN MOVING
THROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH A PUSH OF WAA ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SLOPING OVER THE WEDGE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS HAS BROUGHT LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN
FOCUSED IN THE CSRA AND GENERALLY WEST OF I-26. TOTALS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SPOTS UPWARDS OF 0.75-1"
TOWARD THE CSRA OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS SE GA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND THIS WILL LIKELY REACH THE CSRA IN THE
COMING HOURS, CONTINUING TOWARD THE NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE FOCUSED MAINLY WEST OF THE I- 26
CORRIDOR WHERE THE GREATEST 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE
LOCATED. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PERHAPS SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REACHING THE SOUTHERN FA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THUS WITH PWAT'S REMAINING ABOVE 2", MODERATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING IN THE REGION,
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
CSRA AND INTO THE UPSTATE TO START THE DAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE MORNING. RAINFALL RATE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH SOIL MOISTURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MCDUFFIE AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN GA, AND EDGEFIELD AND SOUTHERN
MCCORMICK COUNTIES IN SC, COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SPOTS OF
NUISANCE FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK,
FAIRLY RARE COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL
ALLOW COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OFF TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND PROVIDE AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION (WITH PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES). RIBBONS OF VORTICITY
COUPLED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET THE SCENE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY ACROSS MODEL
GUIDANCE, BUT REMAINED WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN NOTABLY LESS RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE OF TRAINING WITH THESE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND IT
IS POSSIBLE TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUING WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- SOME OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FOR LATE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SIGNAL THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LEADING TO A
MORE, OR LESS, ACTIVE PERIOD DEPENDING ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD. THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFUSE AND THE LEE RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL START
TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LARGELY DRIVEN BY TYPICAL DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION, SO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THEN
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
LOW-LEVEL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY, WHILE WINDS ABOVE THE WEDGE TURN
SOUTHERLY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND OVER TOP OF THE COOLER WEDGE, PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY. CEILING RESTRICTIONS REMAIN HIGHLY PROBABLE,
WITH MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS, THEN LASTING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION,
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES BECOME PROBABLE AS THE RAINFALL COVERAGE
EXPANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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