726
FXUS62 KCAE 051648
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1248 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH A CONTINUED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE ATYPICAL COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN LINGERS THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A COASTAL LOW ERODES THE WEDGE THIS
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY DESPITE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES STICK AROUND THIS WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MORNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE FORECAST AREA.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST I-20.
- ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON THE SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
RADAR AT MIDDAY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS, ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE RAIN HAS BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES, PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS RAINFALL IS
REINFORCING THE ONGOING COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN THAT HAS
PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS BEING NOTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, AND
THESE REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HAVING SAID THAT, RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES ELSEWHERE AND WITH
HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE REGION, THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONTINUES. THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH ALREADY HAVE SATURATED SOILS AND
RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS FROM THIS MORNING'S FLOODING. THE
ENTIRE CWA IS IN A SLIGHT (2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
THE LATEST DAY 1 ERO AND ADDITIONAL FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED
DUE TO ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR
DAMMING WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE MID-80S,
WARMEST WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID-60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, WARMEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN A COLD AIR DAMMING
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THE FORCING COMBINED WITH A MOIST EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PWATS ARE HIGHER. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT LIGHTER QPF. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN PLACE. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. LOWS NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT CREEPING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MONITOR FOR THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
THIS WEEKEND.
THE DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
EVEN AS IT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED WEAK SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR THE SC
COAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH ALONG OR NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT AGREE THAT A MOIST EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE BLEND
MODERATES THE FEATURES KEEPING GENERALLY SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A LOW
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR
NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SLOWLY INCREASE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS,
LOWEST AT CUB AND DNL. THE RADAR AT MIDDAY SHOWS THE MAIN BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS CLEARED THE TERMINALS, WITH AN
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING CAE/CUB. CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, IMPROVING FOR
A FEW HOURS. OGB IS MOST LIKELY TO RETURN TO VFR BUT ALSO HAS
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER
TODAY. ALL TERMINALS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE INDICATED A RETURN TO VFR
CEILINGS EVERYWHERE FROM 19Z UNTIL 03Z. CEILING RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL WHICH ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY PRIOR TO DAYTIME. SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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