713
FXUS62 KCAE 061138
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTS
TO CHANGE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE, BUT HIGHS STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MODERATE RAIN LIKELY THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
- ROBUST WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
- BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE.
12Z UPDATE: THE RADAR AT DAYBREAK SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. WILL BE MONITORING RAINFALL
RATES ACROSS THE WEST TO SEE IF ANY FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE
WARRANTED. DUE TO YESTERDAY'S HEAVY RAINFALL IT WILL NOT TAKE AS
MUCH FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AS WE GET INTO TODAY, UNPRECEDENTED COLD
AIR DAMMING FOR THE WARM SEASON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. WANT TO
START THIS DISCUSSION OFF WITH SOME INTERESTING TRIVIA:
AS OF THIS WRITING, THERE ARE ONLY A FEW STRETCHES IN CAE'S
OBSERVATION HISTORY WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME AT OR BELOW
80F. CAE HAS BEEN BELOW 80F SINCE THE 7:56P OBSERVATION ON
AUGUST 1ST, WITH NOW 101 HOURS STRAIGHT BELOW 80F. A LEGITIMATE
COLD-AIR DAMMING EVENT DURING ANY OF THE SUMMER MONTHS IS PRETTY
NOTEWORTHY, BUT IT ESPECIALLY IS IN AUGUST. IN MY DIGGING OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, I CAN ONLY FIND A SINGLE SLAM-DUNK
CAD EVENT IN AUGUST THAT WAS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND IT WAS BACK
IN 1981 AND FEATURED TEMPS AT OR BELOW 80F FOR 188 STRAIGHT
HOURS. IT WOULD TAKE A LOT FOR US TO GET TO THAT POINT, BUT THAT
IS FOR A LATER FORECAST. TODAY'S WEATHER LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING HELD
IN PLACE BY CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEAST AS SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
FOSTERS SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SO A REALLY
ROBUST SURFACE REMAINS RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND
RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE WEDGE ONLY SLOWLY ERODES AROUND THE EDGES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WEDGE, AS GUIDANCE IS USUALLY TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING AND IT STILL ISN'T FORECAST
TO BREAK AT CAE AT ALL TODAY.
THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE ARE INTERESTING TODAY, AS SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FOSTER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP, IT COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN OUR COAST PLAIN COUNTIES. HREF AND REFS 6HR LPMM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONSIDERED BUT THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS IN OUR AREA TO JUSTIFY ONE. SO IF THE WEDGE DOES MIX
NORTHWARD MORE THAN EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA, WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE AREA DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE IN THE WEDGE. OVERNIGHT,
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HOLD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER IN GENERAL TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PERSISTENT COOL, WET PATTERN CONTINUES
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN FA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALSO EDGES CLOSER TO THE FA. THIS
SHOULD FOCUS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN FA
WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER. WITH LOWER QPF EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN
FA, WHICH HAS RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
THE FLOODING THREAT IS LOW. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EASTERN FA BUT THE COOL LOW LEVELS WILL HINDER DEEP
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TEMPS BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
FRIDAY MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT SOGGY PATTERN AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. OVER THE
WEEKEND THE PARENT HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FINALLY DEPARTS AND
RIDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WEAKENS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW
SOME CHANGE FROM THE ABNORMALLY COOL WEATHER, RAIN CHANCES RAMP
BACK UP AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MEAN PWAT
VALUES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES RISE BACK TO AROUND 2
INCHES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN
MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK THERE'S STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING....
12Z UPDATE: ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. OGB IS MOST LIKELY TO BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS
BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TO SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS THEY PASS BY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A WEDGE WITHOUT PREVIOUS PRECEDENT (IN
AUGUST, AT LEAST) IS CURRENTLY LOCKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. THE FORECAST IS PRETTY
STRAIGHTFORWARD AND GENUINELY LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING OUT OF MID
FEBRUARY. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AT AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA SITES, WITH ORANGEBURG POSSIBLY
BREAKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EITHER
ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ONLY
LIFTING BY MID- MORNING. THESE ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. RAIN GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE AND
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AT
OGB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MODULATED BY HOW FAR NORTH THE
ACTUAL WEDGE BOUNDARY MAKES IT, THOUGH. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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