863
FXUS62 KCAE 061656
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1256 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO CHANGE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE, BUT HIGHS STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXITS THE FORECAST AREA.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS.
- BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE.
RADAR IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWS A BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO, WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITION RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE
IMPRESSIVE CAD EVENT CONTINUES BUT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE COAST
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PEE DEE. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST, STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS SHOULD
THE CLOUDS ERODE MORE THAN EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS
SHOWN IN THE HREF GUIDANCE. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EARLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
- PERSISTENT COOL, WET PATTERN CONTINUES
AS THIS STRONG WEDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY, A
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWING EDGE ITSELF INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR A
SURFACE LOW FORMING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE,
HOWEVER RECENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND STAY OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. AS THE
AFORMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY,
DRIER AIR WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN FA. THERE IS STILL
SOME INCONSISTENCY ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE
PREVALENT. EVEN THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN FA, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HINDER DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THIS ALONG WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES IN THE WESTERN FA, WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT TO REMAIN LOW ON THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
- WARMING TEMPS BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA,
DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS PARENT HIGH SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST FINALLY DEPARTS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH,
TEMPERATURES WARM A TAD, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG WITH
THIS CHANGE AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST RISK OF
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
PWATS RISING NEAR 2.0 INCHES. OVERALL WITH THE SETUP REMAINING
SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THERE IS CHANCE TO SEE ISOLATED RISK
FOR FLOODING EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS WITH BREAKS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT OGB....
THE TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR OR NEAR IFR CEILINGS
AT MIDDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS, AND ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT SHOWN IN THE TAFS, A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AT OGB WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS. GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING CEILINGS BACK DOWN TO LIFR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPT OF
AGS/DNL WHERE THE COULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY. WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE LOWER CEILINGS FOR NOW BASED ON HREF GUIDANCE AND
UPDATE THE TAFS THERE AS NEEDED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS
LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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