428
FXUS62 KCAE 062321
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
721 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO CHANGE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE, BUT HIGHS STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT
RADAR IS QUIET OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HERE AND THERE, MAINLY IN THE PEE DEE. I DON'T EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A
STABLE LOW CLOUD DECK SURGING IN FROM THE NORTH, THANKS TO THE
STUBBORN WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DESPITE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS MIXING WILL KEEP A LOW CLOUD DECK IN PLACE INSTEAD.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
- PERSISTENT COOL, WET PATTERN CONTINUES
AS THIS STRONG WEDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY, A
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWING EDGE ITSELF INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR A
SURFACE LOW FORMING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE,
HOWEVER RECENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND STAY OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. AS THE
AFORMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY,
DRIER AIR WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN FA. THERE IS STILL
SOME INCONSISTENCY ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE
PREVALENT. EVEN THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN FA, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HINDER DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THIS ALONG WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES IN THE WESTERN FA, WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT TO REMAIN LOW ON THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
- WARMING TEMPS BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA,
DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS PARENT HIGH SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST FINALLY DEPARTS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH,
TEMPERATURES WARM A TAD, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG WITH
THIS CHANGE AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST RISK OF
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
PWATS RISING NEAR 2.0 INCHES. OVERALL WITH THE SETUP REMAINING
SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THERE IS CHANCE TO SEE ISOLATED RISK
FOR FLOODING EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS TO RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE FINALLY BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, AND
A FEW AREAS HAVE ACTUALLY LIFTED BACK INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, A
RETURN TO CEILING RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES DROPPING BACK TO MVFR HEIGHTS BY 03Z, THEN
INTO IFR BY 06Z. LOW CEILINGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
MIXING MAY HELP TO LIFT TO MVFR AND BREAK THE CEILINGS SOMEWHAT
LATE MORNING THURSDAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY ENOUGH MIXING
SHOULD FINALLY BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO ALL
SITES FOR A PERIOD THROUGH 00Z. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE LIMITATIONS AND LOW CONFIDENCE
WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND
8 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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