714
FXUS62 KCAE 071210
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS RIDGING WEAKENS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP, WITH WEDGE CONDITIONS LOOKING
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WV IMAGERY AS OF THIS WRITING SHOWS THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS NOTED WITH THIS
AS GOES PWS FALLING BELOW 2" FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE, STRONG SURFACE RIDGING DOES STILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEDGE CONDITIONS, WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT HELPING TO LOCK THE
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IN PLACE. THIS COMBINATION OF THINGS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A RINSE AND REPEAT DAY OF YESTERDAY MINUS THE MORNING
RAINFALL. THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING NEAR OR ATOP US THROUGH THE DAY,
PLUS THE DRY AIR ALOFT, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT BAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAINFALL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ARE TRICKY AGAIN TODAY AND BASICALLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER
THE WEDGE HOLDS OR BREAKS AND WHERE/WHEN THAT HAPPENS. TEND TO
THINK IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL BREAK BUT TODAY COULD BE THE
DAY THAT IT FINALLY DOES. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S DEPENDING ON WHO GETS SUNSHINE AND WHO DOESN'T.
TONIGHT, EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO RETURN AGAIN AS THE WEDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
- COOLER THAN NORMAL, CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY WHILE THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE.
PWAT VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH PVA AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE
RIDGING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MORNING
WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A LITTLE MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
- WARMING TEMPERATURES
- RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE EASTERN US, PARENT
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST SEPARATES FROM THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP, ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH WEAK
RIDGING LINGERING OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM THE GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES RISE BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS
TREND FAVORS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THOUGH THEIR
INTENSITY AND DURATION IS A QUESTION MARK RIGHT NOW.
MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT AGS/DNL/CUB/CAE AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING, WHILE OGB IS EXPERIENCING IFR CIGS. EXPECT THESE
LOWER CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME
SPOTTY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA TERMINALS
COULD STILL SEE SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING, BUT DON'T
ANTICIPATE THEM TO LAST LONG IF THEY OCCUR. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN
IMPROVE AND POTENTIALLY REACH VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THAT POSSIBILITY. IF WE ARE ABLE TO BREAK
OUT OF THESE LOW CLOUDS, GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO REDUCE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT. IF WE DON'T BREAK OUT, WE LIKELY
WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. GENERALLY NORTHEAST WIND
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, TOPPING OUT IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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