262
FXUS62 KCAE 071735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND
LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS SURFACE RIDGING
WEAKENS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IS SHOWING UP WELL ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS TROUGH HAS ALLOWED SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.3-1.5" THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE PARKED OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO
THESE PROLONGED WEDGE CONDITIONS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY
NEAR THE CSRA. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 80, BUT THAT IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH OF THESE BREAKS CAN DEVELOP. I SUSPECT IT
WON'T BE AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE,
ONLY ANTICIPATED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, LIKELY LEADING TO MORE OF THE SAME WITH CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL PATCHY DRIZZLE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY, MAINLY SE OF
I-20, WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS SC ON FRIDAY, WHILE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST IN A LATE STAGE OF COLD-AIR
DAMMING. WEAK SFC LOW LOOKS TO PERSIST OR SLOWLY DEEPEN OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DAMMING HIGH. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NE FRIDAY; ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS SEEN, WITH ONLY SMALL QPF RESPONSE FROM MODELS IN THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, SEEMINGLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE WEDGE BOUNDARY. MORNING CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT,
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY--BUT MAXES
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODEST SBCAPE DEVELOPS
DIURNALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-20, AND THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FORECAST IN THAT AREA. CHANCES DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, CLOUDS SPREAD
OVER THE AREA AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC LOW DECREASES BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR WAA AND MOISTURE
FLUX. COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER SFC TEMPS (BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL), AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS A BIT HIGHER THAN FRIDAY, BUT OF
PARTICULAR NOTE MUCAPE IS HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT VERSUS FRIDAY NIGHT,
SO PRECIP CHANCES LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-20.
ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW-MOVING THRU THE PERIOD. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY BELOW-NORMAL PWATS FRIDAY, BUT
THOSE VALUES TREND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, SO THAT THREAT WILL INCREASE AT THAT TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TRENDING GRADUALLY WARMER OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF COLD-AIR DAMMING BY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY; 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE OVER THE EASTERN US FROM THEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NET
RESULT IS FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO TYPICAL MIDSUMMER WEATHER. IT
STILL APPEARS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY COMPACT SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY-MONDAY, HELPING TO FOCUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
RETURN, EFFECTIVELY PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. HENCE 55-
80% POPS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR VALUES FORECAST
MONDAY; CHANCES REMAIN MOSTLY ON A DIURNAL CURVE BUT CAN'T BE RULED
OUT OVERNIGHT. CHANCES DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AS MODELS LARGELY
SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENING AND THUS LESS COHERENT MOISTURE FLUX,
AND/OR AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ALOFT. WHILE THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ABUNDANT DAILY CLOUD COVER AND THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN, MAX TEMPS TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO
RISE BACK TO NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH PERIODS
OF VFR POSSIBLE.
MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL 5 TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME VFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, MAINLY NEAR AGS AND DNL. ALSO SEEING SOME
EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK IN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
IF THAT CLEARING MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET, SO AM
LEAVING BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AT CAE, CUB,
AND OGB STARTING AROUND 21Z. AT AGS AND DNL, DO HAVE VFR CIGS
ARRIVING AROUND THAT TIME. WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD CIGS RISE TO VFR, THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THAT IF WE CLEAR OUT
MORE THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page