483
FXUS62 KCAE 072331
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE ABNORMALLY EXTENDED WEDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED ENERGY MOVING
OVER TOP OF THE WEDGE, DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY, MAINLY SE OF
I-20, WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS SC ON FRIDAY, WHILE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST IN A LATE STAGE OF COLD-AIR
DAMMING. WEAK SFC LOW LOOKS TO PERSIST OR SLOWLY DEEPEN OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DAMMING HIGH. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NE FRIDAY; ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS SEEN, WITH ONLY SMALL QPF RESPONSE FROM MODELS IN THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, SEEMINGLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE WEDGE BOUNDARY. MORNING CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT,
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY--BUT MAXES
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODEST SBCAPE DEVELOPS
DIURNALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-20, AND THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FORECAST IN THAT AREA. CHANCES DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, CLOUDS SPREAD
OVER THE AREA AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC LOW DECREASES BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR WAA AND MOISTURE
FLUX. COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER SFC TEMPS (BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL), AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS A BIT HIGHER THAN FRIDAY, BUT OF
PARTICULAR NOTE MUCAPE IS HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT VERSUS FRIDAY NIGHT,
SO PRECIP CHANCES LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-20.
ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW-MOVING THRU THE PERIOD. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY BELOW-NORMAL PWATS FRIDAY, BUT
THOSE VALUES TREND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, SO THAT THREAT WILL INCREASE AT THAT TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TRENDING GRADUALLY WARMER OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF COLD-AIR DAMMING BY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY; 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE OVER THE EASTERN US FROM THEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NET
RESULT IS FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO TYPICAL MIDSUMMER WEATHER. IT
STILL APPEARS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY COMPACT SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY-MONDAY, HELPING TO FOCUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
RETURN, EFFECTIVELY PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. HENCE 55-
80% POPS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR VALUES FORECAST
MONDAY; CHANCES REMAIN MOSTLY ON A DIURNAL CURVE BUT CAN'T BE RULED
OUT OVERNIGHT. CHANCES DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AS MODELS LARGELY
SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENING AND THUS LESS COHERENT MOISTURE FLUX,
AND/OR AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ALOFT. WHILE THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ABUNDANT DAILY CLOUD COVER AND THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN, MAX TEMPS TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO
RISE BACK TO NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH PERIODS
OF VFR POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY.
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY BUT EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TO HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. BLENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILINGS
JUST BEFORE DAWN AT OGB WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IFR CEILINGS AT OGB.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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