137
FXUS62 KCAE 080604
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
UNPRECEDENTED COLD-AIR DAMMING CONTINUES TO ENVELOPE THE REGION.
WHAT MORE IS THERE TO SAY ABOUT THE HISTORICITY OF THE CURRENT
WEATHER SETUP? IN THE HISTORY OF CAE'S OBSERVATIONS, THERE HAS BEEN
ONLY ONE OTHER INSTANCE OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 80F FOR THIS
LONG (NOW GOING ON 150+ HOURS) IN AUGUST. AND THAT WAS IN MID/LATE
AUGUST! THE CULPRIT CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT, ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS. DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS HELPED MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, WITH SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO LOCK IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND
KEEP US SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS A ROBUST VORTICITY MAX PASSING OVER THE AREA
CURRENTLY. WITH SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO AGAIN TAKE HOLD ON ITS
BACK SIDE. WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
WEDGE IS AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUES TO
OUTPERFORM THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BASICALLY EVERY PIECE OF
GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL BREAK OUT OF THE WEDGE TODAY AND
SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW 80S. I AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS
POINT SINCE GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO DO THIS MULTIPLE DAYS IN A
ROW NOW (A TYPICAL BIAS IT HAS WITH COOL SEASON WEDGES). THE
PATTERN ITSELF DOESN'T REALLY LEND ITSELF TO CLEARING A WEDGE
OUT, EITHER, AS WE HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR A
FRONT TO INITIATE STRONG SURFACE MIXING. SO THERE IS A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE WE JUST REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL AGAIN TODAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOSTLY INCREDIBLE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. RAIN IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE TROUGH
AXIS ATOP US OR TO OUR EAST & PWS BELOW 1.75" ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. ITS HARD TO SAY WHAT TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE AS IT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHETHER WE BREAK OUT OF THE WEDGE OR NOT TODAY.
LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER, THOUGH, WITH CLOUDS AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY AS THE LOW
OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM, MOIST ADVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE FA AND WARM ADVECTION OVER TOP OF IT WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SURELY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF NE FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST. CAMS FOCUS
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SOLELY BUT IT SEEMS THAT THERE WILL
STILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA AS WELL. CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN THE LONG
TERM. THE NET RESULT IS FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO TYPICAL
MIDSUMMER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURE
WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL. AS THE LOW OFFSHORE LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION, A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT DEVELOPS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
A HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS, WE SHOULD RETURN BACK TO A MORE
NORMAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR AND IFR IS COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY, WITH IT LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BUT POTENTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE NOTED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS,
FORCING UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEDGE CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND
PERIODIC DRIZZLE ARE THE RESULT, WITH IFR CONDITIONS NOTED AT
CAE/CUB/OGB AND MVFR AT AGS/DNL. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING. GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN
THE WEDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SKEPTICAL THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.
GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRIED TO BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND THAT HASN'T HAPPENED. THIS IS A MODEL BIAS TYPICAL OF ROUTINE,
WINTER WEDGES BUT SINCE A WEDGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS REALLY NEVER
OCCURRED IN THE WARM SEASON IT WAS UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WOULD CARRY
OVER. IT HAS, AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE EXPECTATION OF WHEN THE
CLOUDS COULD BREAK BY A FEW HOURS FROM WHAT GUIDANCE HAS. DO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL RETURN TO VFR AT SOME POINT TODAY BUT WHEN
THAT HAPPENS IS UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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