550
FXUS62 KCAE 081705
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
105 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME WEAKENING
IS POSSIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA IS STILL PRETTY WELL
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WEDGE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW UP IN THE REGION, MAINLY IN THE LOW COUNTRY AND NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS COULD SIGNAL SOME POTENTIAL WEAKENING IN THE
WEDGE. WITH HOW ENTRENCHED WE ARE IN THE CLOUD, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE
AREA. THE BEST BET FOR SOME CLEARING LOOKS TO BE IN THE PEEDEE
AND NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPS TODAY REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST, SO DID LOWER THEM A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILTER BACK IN OVERNIGHT,
MODERATING LOW TEMPS LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY EAST.
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
LIFTS NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WARM, MOIST ADVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE FA AND WARM ADVECTION OVER TOP OF IT WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SURELY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF NE FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 80S. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST, LEADING TO
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG
THE COAST. CAMS FOCUS CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SOLELY BUT IT
SEEMS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO LINGER OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN THE LONG
TERM. THE NET RESULT IS FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO TYPICAL
MIDSUMMER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURE
WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL. AS THE LOW OFFSHORE LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION, A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT DEVELOPS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS, WE SHOULD RETURN BACK TO A MORE
NORMAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1500 FEET AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. EXPECT THESE MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE WITH SOME IMPROVING
TO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING IN CLOUDS
NEAR THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON SATELLITE, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN A FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT. THAT SAID,
KEEPING LOWER END VFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. ALSO,
SOME HAZE IS BEING OBSERVED AT CAE AND CUB, SO HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP AT EACH OF THOSE TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
PERIODIC LOWERED VIS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON,
EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5-10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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