197
FXUS62 KCAE 251102
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
702 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE HELPS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEASONABLE. DESPITE THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH OF ANYTHING IN WAY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. HOWEVER, A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM COULD
SNEAK INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS, KEEPING A CAP ON
INSTABILITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL BE TAKING HOLD WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW AN INCH, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 80-85 DEGREES, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY FEEL COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NBM SHOWING AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME, AND DID NOT STRAY FROM
THAT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS RATHER LOW
CONSIDERING PWATS DONT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURE WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S AND LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING BY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A
CUMULUS FIELD IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO FILTER IN TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KTS AFTER ABOUT 15Z-16Z WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER ABOUT 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY PUTTING AN END TO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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