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FXUS62 KCAE 251735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A DRY AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
FORECAST OF EVEN MORE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON THE NEAR HORIZON.
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS BELOW THE 1ST PERCENTILE COMMON
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS PUSHING A PRETTY
ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTH IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH TODAY, DROPPING PWS AS IT DOES SO.
GOES DERIVED PWS ARE ACTUALLY FALLING BELOW 1" ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN FA, WITH THIS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FA
AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
LIKELY END UP AROUND 90F WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. PWAT VALUES MAY DROP BELOW AN INCH DURING
THE DAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 80-85 DEGREES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MID
WEEK AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THERE
COULD BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY ON. HOWEVER THERE
ARE A MANY MEMBERS WHICH KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY AS THE
WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
SEASONALLY DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY PUTTING AN END TO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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