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FXUS62 KCAE 260527
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, BRINGING A TASTE OF FALL ALONG WITH IT. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RELATIVELY COOL WITH DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SWINGS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA,
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND IT. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY THANKS IN PART TO THE
UPPER TROUGH. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT STILL BE IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE BEFORE
DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH BY THIS EVENING. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
BE NOTED IN THE DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT, SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL REPLACE THE DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SINCE THE MAIN UPPER FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST, DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE WEAK
RIDGE EAST. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING,
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK, THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE LONGER TERM WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL THEN
PUSH BACK IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING THE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE 5 KFT LEVEL
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5-10 KTS AFTER ABOUT 15Z. A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS AROUND 18Z OR SO, SHIFTING THE WINDS
TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER. WITH THE DRY AIR, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING EITHER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THE DRIER AIR MASS FRONT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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