848
FXUS62 KCAE 261118
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, BRINGING A TASTE OF FALL ALONG WITH IT. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RELATIVELY COOL WITH DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SWINGS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA,
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND IT. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY THANKS IN PART TO THE
UPPER TROUGH. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT STILL ONLY BE IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE
BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH BY THIS EVENING. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO BE NOTED IN THE DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT, SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL REPLACE THE DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SINCE THE MAIN UPPER FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST, DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE WEAK
RIDGE EAST. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING,
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK, THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE LONGER TERM WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL THEN
PUSH BACK IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING THE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING BY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN A CUMULUS FIELD IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO FILTER IN TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KTS AFTER ABOUT 15Z-16Z WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER ABOUT
00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE ARE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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