713
FXUS62 KCAE 261809
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
BRINGING FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A
REINFORCING DRY, COOL AIR MASS EXPECTED MID WEEK, COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY
A DRY, COOL AIR MASS IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DERIVED PWAT VALUES FROM GOES RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HREF PROBABILITIES OF PWATS LESS THAN 0.8 INCHES
ARE BETWEEN 80 TO 90%, INDICATING THAT DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S, LEADING TO ANOTHER COMFORTABLE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE. BLENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE, HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY (AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WOULD TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF).
THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE DAY. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS BELOW AVERAGE AS
TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY, EVIDENT IN THE SPREAD OF BLENDED TEMPERATURES, IN
THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND WHETHER IT SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA OR HANGS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDLESS
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE IN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
ARE STREAMING OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N/NW THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVEN BEFORE SUNSET.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS. WINDS PICK BACK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT OF THE NE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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