644
FXUS62 KCAE 262327
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
727 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH A REINFORCING DRY, COOL
AIR MASS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER TONIGHT.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. PWATS ARE UNDER 1.5 INCHES
WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE.
A COOL AND DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK.
THE DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HREF PROBABILITIES OF PWATS LESS THAN 0.8 INCHES
ARE BETWEEN 80 TO 90%, INDICATING THAT DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S, LEADING TO ANOTHER COMFORTABLE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE. BLENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE, HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY (AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WOULD TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF).
THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE DAY. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS BELOW AVERAGE AS
TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY, EVIDENT IN THE SPREAD OF BLENDED TEMPERATURES, IN
THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND WHETHER IT SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA OR HANGS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDLESS
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE IN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND SHOULD BEGIN
EXITING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE REGION. FEW CUMULUS WERE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR CALM WITH NO FOG EXPECTED WITH THE DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK BACK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AT 5-8 KTS WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS WILL COME INTO FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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