873
FXUS62 KCAE 270519
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
119 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH A REINFORCING DRY, COOL
AIR MASS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION, EVEN
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IT. DEW POINTS AND PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE DAY FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY; A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN BY FRIDAY
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND OFFSHORE. PWATS TO START OFF
THE DAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AN INCH IN THE NORTH, AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AN INCH OVER THE SOUTH. LATEST HREF DOES SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT STILL
EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EAST COAST TROUGH, AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY, THE DAY SHOULD START OFF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH, THEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OVER THE NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THOSE
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
- LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GENERAL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE IN HINTING AT ANOTHER WEDGELIKE PATTERN WITH THIS HIGH,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. POTENTIAL
FOR DRIER AIR TO COME BACK TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. UNTIL THEN, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO
THE 5-10 KT RANGE AFTER ABOUT 14Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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