355
FXUS62 KCAE 271744
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WITH A REINFORCING DRY, COOL AIR MASS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND COOL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PROVIDING COOL, DRY WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850 MB. THIS WILL
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BUT LOWS WILL STILL
GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE CSRA FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ON WITH HREF MEAN PWATS INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND AN INCH WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, MAYBE A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE TREND IN GLOBAL MODELS OF BEING
A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH, LESSENING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY IN THE CSRA, ALTHOUGH WITH WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT, DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A MODERATING
AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT
OTHERWISE SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY.
COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY LEADING TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS BLENDED PROBS OF SBCAPE
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG ARE AROUND 50-60%, HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-20. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH LREF PROBABILITIES OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AROUND 50-
60%, HIGHEST IN THE CSRA. AS A RESULT, HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL
BE IN THE CSRA. MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO FAVOR POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TOWARDS MID WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z WITH A FEW CUMULUS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS
TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET THEN PICK UP
AFTER 15Z THURSDAY OUT OF THE SE AROUND 5 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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