974
FXUS62 KCAE 272351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND COOL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING COOL, DRY WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD
PROVIDE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850 MB. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BUT LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IF
CLOUDS TURN OUT NOT TO BE AS THICK AS EXPECTED THERE CERTAINLY
COULD BE SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE CSRA FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ON WITH HREF MEAN PWATS INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND AN INCH WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, MAYBE A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE TREND IN GLOBAL MODELS OF BEING
A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH, LESSENING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY IN THE CSRA, ALTHOUGH WITH WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT, DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A MODERATING
AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT
OTHERWISE SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY.
COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY LEADING TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS BLENDED PROBS OF SBCAPE
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG ARE AROUND 50-60%, HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-20. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH LREF PROBABILITIES OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AROUND 50-
60%, HIGHEST IN THE CSRA. AS A RESULT, HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL
BE IN THE CSRA. MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO FAVOR POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TOWARDS MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN THIS EVENING AS A CUMULUS FIELD
CONTINUES TO WANE, THOUGH SOME UPPER CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND
THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPOTS GOING
CALM. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH THE AIR
MASS LIKELY REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION, THIS RISK IS
ALSO LIMITED BY SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z, WINDS PICK UP AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT THEY COULD BE A BIT VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. SCT CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD YIELD SCT TO BKN HIGH
CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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