242
FXUS62 KCAE 281014
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, THEN A RETURN OF COOLER AND
MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL DAY IS EXPECTED.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. DEEP, UNUSUAL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS INDICATIVE OF
THIS, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OBVIOUS AND ADVECTING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AT THE LOW LEVELS, WE ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY, WITH NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW COMMON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE, WITH GOES INDICATING PWS LESS THAT 1" ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS KEEPING THINGS BENIGN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY, THOUGH, AS WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S TODAY. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WONDERFUL DEWPOINT DAY, TOO,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON! TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR PLEASANT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- DRY WEATHER NOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE TREND OF
BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MORE TOWARDS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE,
WHICH IS TO KEEP LOWER PWAT VALUES MOSTLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS MAKES MORE SENSE SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED, HELPING TO KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF FURTHER TO
OUR SOUTH. SO THIS KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM DRY NOW,
WITH ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY IT
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THIS, THE NBM SHOWS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAINING DRY.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOWER SIDE IN REGARDS TO PRECIP
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TRENDING
DRIER AND PWATS STAY WELL BELOW AN INCH THE FRONT COULD END UP
MOISTURE STARVED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS MODERATE
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
A RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME, ALTHOUGH IF DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESS CLOUDS DEVELOP,
HIGHS COULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS READINGS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST MOST AFTERNOONS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH SETS UP NORTH OF THE AREA.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POTENTIAL WEDGE SETUP AT THE SURFACE AND A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ALOFT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP COOLER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE
A SLIGHT MODERATION BEGINS BY MID-WEEK. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LOW, BUT NBM DOES SHOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DICTATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ULTIMATELY,
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE PASSING UPPER
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE
TRICKY TODAY, SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TODAY TO
VARIABLE/WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS,
LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO AREA SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page