244
FXUS62 KCAE 281732
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, THEN A RETURN OF COOLER AND
MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER DRY AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, CENTERED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER.
WHILE SOME CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, STILL A
SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE BASED ON THE
12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF CHARLESTON AND ATLANTA. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A RESULT WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME PATCHES OF FOG
REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA RIVERS BUT
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- DRY WEATHER NOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN US. ONE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
CSRA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CONVECTION BECOMING SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CSRA AND ISOLATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS SATURDAY. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY GIVEN A LACK
OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BENEATH THE TROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT COOL OFF MORE ON SATURDAY
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST MOST AFTERNOONS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST LATE IN THE
THE WEEKEND, WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD THEN MOVE THROUGH BY
MID- WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BUILD FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY, BUT THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K TO 6KFT WILL DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CLEARING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED, BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG
POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, MAINLY IN FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. AS
A RESULT, HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS. IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY OGB, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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