013
FXUS62 KCAE 290031
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, THEN A RETURN OF COOLER AND
MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL/GA BUT STAYING SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT A PASSING SPRINKLE IN
BURKE COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALSO BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT AFTER 06Z ALLOWING FOR SOME MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WHICH MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY FOG ALONG RIVERS. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- DRY WEATHER NOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN US. ONE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
CSRA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CONVECTION BECOMING SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CSRA AND ISOLATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS SATURDAY. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY GIVEN A LACK
OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BENEATH THE TROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT COOL OFF MORE ON SATURDAY
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST MOST AFTERNOONS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST LATE IN THE
THE WEEKEND, WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD THEN MOVE THROUGH BY
MID- WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BUILD FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY, BUT THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THESE CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING UP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH
THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FA, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE HRRR, GLAMP,
AND NBM GUIDANCE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS AT AGS BUT RECENT GLAMP GUIDANCE HAS ALSO STARTED
TO SHOW SOME OF THIS NEAR OGB AS WELL. DUE TO THIS, I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT AGS, BUT ALSO ADDED
THIS TO OGB AFTER 09Z. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND WINDS PICK UP AROUND 4-6 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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