717
FXUS62 KCAE 290545
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY. RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF COOLER AND MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- QUIET WEATHER FORECAST AGAIN TODAY
- CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS SIMILAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. TROUGHING REMAINS PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
WESTERLY FLOW IS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD AND HOLDING TEMPS UP IN THE LOW 70S STILL AT THIS HOUR.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR COMMON TODAY. PWS ARE LIKELY TO DIP
BACK BELOW 1" THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF
A DEEP DRY LAYER OVER HEAD. HIGHS IN THIS SETUP ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL, LANDING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
THIS AFTERNOON, SO IT SHOULDN'T BE TOO BAD OUT THERE. TONIGHT, THE
FORECAST SHIFTS A BIT. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS, HELPING REINFORCE THE LARGE TROUGH. AS IT
DOES SO, THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD
GA/SC AND AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. HREF
MEAN SOUNDINGS AT AGS INDICATE A FAIRLY QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LIKELY DEVELOPING SHOWERS LAAAAATE IN THIS
PERIOD (LIKE NEAR 10Z-12Z SATURDAY). PWS BY THIS POINT ARE FORECAST
TO BE AS HIGH AS 1.7" IN AGS, FALLING OFF TO <1" ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A RANGE OF PRECIP CHANCES AS A
RESULT. SO ALL OF THAT TO SAY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
APPROACHING OR OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S NORTH
AND THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. ALL IN ALL, THIS IS ANOTHER LOW IMPACT
FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED, WITH EASTERN US TROUGH SETUP
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESIDE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH PWAT READINGS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SLIGHTLY LOWER
READINGS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE, BETWEEN 1.25 AND
1.5 INCHES BEING INDICATED BY THE HREF MEAN PWAT READINGS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LOCATED THERE. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AND FLIP-FLOPPED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THIS IS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN SOUTH, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SUN AND LESS RAIN NORTH. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH
COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH SEEING READINGS MORE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW COUNTRY CLOSER TO
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE SEA-BREEZE. TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST MOST AFTERNOONS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION
BY MID-WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BUILD FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR THE MOST PART, THE NBM INDICATES MOSTLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY, BUT THE GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO STREAM HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO CLEAR OUT BY LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE SUN
COMES UP. GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB AT SOME POINT EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW IN THIS,
WARRANTING JUST A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME. WITH
A WEAK, TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY, WINDS GENUINELY LOOK VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
UNTIL THIS EVENING, WHEN THEY'RE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SLOWLY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. ANY ACTUAL
IMPACTS FROM THIS, SUCH AS ISOLATED SHOWERS, ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD JUST AFTER THIS ONE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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