112
FXUS62 KCAE 291748
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY. RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF COOLER AND MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS.
SIMILAR PATTERN TODAY AS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS BELOW AN
INCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
MODERATE TODAY, STILL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND A DEVELOPING
CUMULUS FIELD THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO
TRANSITION FROM NW TO WSW. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE REACHES. THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEP MOISTURE CAN
REACH INTO THE AREA. HREF MEMBERS GENERALLY SHOW A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WITH
LOWER PROBABILITIES THE FARTHER NORTH. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE, HREF MEAN INDICATES INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND AS
THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO
DECREASE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING
PWATS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TREND AMONG ENSEMBLES
OF DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH GEFS MEAN PWATS ABOUT ONE
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A RESULT
HAS DECREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO
STAY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE US THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING LIMITED SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW DISTURBANCES TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT
ALSO LIKELY REINFORCE THE COOLER WEATHER FOR OUR FIRST
METEOROLOGICAL FALL, WHICH BEGINS ON LABOR DAY THIS YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.
CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE FOR THE
TERMINALS SO FAR TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AUGUSTA AND ORANGEBURG TERMINALS AND BY TOMORROW MORNING
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT THE
AUGUSTA TERMINALS WITH LESS CONFIDENCE FOR ORANGEBURG. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED THEM IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS
LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE WEAK
SO THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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