691
FXUS62 KCAE 300024
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
824 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY CREEP INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT THE DAY IS TRENDING DRIER.
A RETURN OF COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE CSRA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KY/TN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES IN THE CSRA WITH
A GRADIENT TO LOWER VALUES FURTHER NORTH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEP MOISTURE CAN
REACH INTO THE AREA. HREF MEMBERS GENERALLY SHOW A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WITH
LOWER PROBABILITIES THE FARTHER NORTH. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE, HREF MEAN INDICATES INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND AS
THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO
DECREASE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING
PWATS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TREND AMONG ENSEMBLES
OF DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH GEFS MEAN PWATS ABOUT ONE
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A RESULT
HAS DECREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO
STAY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE US THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING LIMITED SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW DISTURBANCES TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT
ALSO LIKELY REINFORCE THE COOLER WEATHER FOR OUR FIRST
METEOROLOGICAL FALL, WHICH BEGINS ON LABOR DAY THIS YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY NEAR AGS/DNL.
CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THOUGH A BATCH OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN TOWARD AGS/DNL/OGB WHERE GREATER
MOISTURE RESIDES. OVERNIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND SURFACE FRONT. THE AREA LIKELY STAYS DRY OVERNIGHT BUT NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
PUSHING IN NEAR AGS/DNL AND POSSIBLY OGB. DUE TO THIS, I HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR AGS AND DNL STARTING AT 12Z FOR THIS
ACTIVITY WHILE ADDING A PROB30 GROUP FOR OGB WHERE UNCERTAINTY
IS A BIT HIGHER. THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERSPREADING THE AUGUSTA
TERMINALS BUT GLAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AND
THUS I HAVE MAINTAINED THESE CEILINGS AT AGS/DNL. IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE LOWER CEILINGS SPREADS TOWARD OGB, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SEE'S SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WANE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
CEILINGS THAT GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH 5-7 KT WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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