506
FXUS62 KCAE 301008
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SC AND THE
CSRA TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT THE DAY IS TRENDING DRIER. A
RETURN OF COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME TRACE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE.
SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO SWING OVER THE REGION TODAY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE FA TODAY WE WILL SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT
MAINLY KEEPING TO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE, SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE HEADING
INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE SOUTH IN
THE SHOWERS AND MID 80S TO THE NORTH WHERE LOWER CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SC COASTLINE. THIS IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO DIG AND FORCE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OFF THE COAST.
MEANWHILE, THIS SAME TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORCE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS, YIELDING SOME IN-SITU WEDGE
CONDITIONS. THESE AREN'T LIKELY TO BE TYPICAL OF A WEDGE (SO IT
MAY NOT REALLY FALL INTO THAT CATEGORY) AS PWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART
ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. NORTHEASTERLY LOW- LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO KEEP PERSISTENTLY COOL 850 HPA TEMPS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE MID 50S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, YIELDING JUST REALLY
NICE WEATHER IN GENERAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. ONE THING TO NOTE IN ADDITION TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE BREEZY AS THE
COASTAL LOW GETS GOING AND HELPS YIELD A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS
OF 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DEEP TROUGHING FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE MIDWEEK
OVERALL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
NICE WEATHER CONTINUING ON TUESDAY, WITH CLOUDS LIKELY INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES A RUN
OR TWO AGO, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH LESS GUNG-HO WITH RAIN
CHANCES WED/THUR. FORCING AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SHOULD
BE TO OUR NORTH/EAST, WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW PWS ONLY
AROUND 1" OR SO. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ON WED, IT
SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WILL OCCUR AT THIS
TIME. BEYOND THIS, PERSISTENT, DEEP TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. HOW FAR
SOUTH AND EAST THIS TROUGH DIGS IS UNCERTAIN, WITH DIFFERENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DIFFERENT DEGREES OF AMPLITUDE. THIS IS
LEADING TO A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE FORECAST TEMPS
AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD, SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS PROBABLY
A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL AS WE GET INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EARLY THIS MORNING, A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MOVING OVER AGS/DNL AND
OGB. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA TODAY. ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES WILL BE LIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, EITHER FROM RAIN LOWERING VISIBILITY OR MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SITES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH RAIN-COOLED
LOW LEVELS WE MAY SEE SOME FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION MAY
LEAD TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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