811
FXUS62 KCAE 310018
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE PEEDEE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH, WITH A RETURN
TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- FEW SHOWERS IN THE PEEDEE THIS EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS IN THE PEEDEE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH. HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. LOOKING AT THE SPC MESOANALYSIS, THERE IS A SMALL AREA
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA, SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE.
THEREFORE, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH 11 PM.
AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE, EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, REINFORCING THE SURFACE
WEDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
UNLIKE TYPICAL IN-SITU WEDGES, THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE, WITH WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE 50-60% OF
NORMAL BY MONDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE SUNSHINE LOOKS ON TAP
FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DEEP TROUGHING FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE MIDWEEK
ENSEMBLES SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING SOME PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN
SHOWING SOME GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS NOT
YET ON BOARD SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE BUT
TO WHAT DEGREE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAINTY WITH VARYING AMPLITUDES
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANY RAIN COMING MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME FOG-STRATUS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, FAVORING OGB/AGS.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING OFF THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED
STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN BUT COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE
CSRA. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AT OGB/AGS.
THE SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WITH SOME IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AT OGB/AGS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION MAY
LEAD TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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