570
FXUS62 KCAE 310535
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH, WITH A
RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL, DRY, AND BREEZY
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO COOL, LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
PWAT VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DEEPENS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTS
TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS BREAKING INTO THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THE WEATHER LOOKS GENUINELY PHENOMENAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
KEEPING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED TO OUR NORTH. SURFACE
RIDGING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE FAVORED IN
THIS PATTERN, ENHANCED BY A COASTAL LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DRIER THAN NORMAL AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE FAVORED IN THIS SETUP. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE BOTH DAYS, WITH PWS AROUND
THE 10TH PERCENTILE (PER NAEFS). ALL OF THIS FAVORS MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. CAN'T REALLY THINK OF A NICER WEATHER
STRETCH TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER!
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DEEP TROUGHING FAVORED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD,
MODIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE MIDWEEK
DEEP TROUGHING IS STILL THE FAVORED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM. ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL
FAVORING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGS THE TROUGH EVEN FURTHER INTO THE
CONUS. THE CORE OF THE DEEPEST TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION AND GREAT LAKES, WITH NEAR
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SETTLING BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE'LL BE INFLUENCE BY HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP TROUGH, BUT THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, DAY TIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE, THOUGH, DIURNAL RANGES
SHOULD BE LARGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
FEATURE OUR LAST CHANCE OF RAIN OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BRIEF, EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT OTHERWISE VFR
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 18 KTS.
DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER SHALLOW, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TAF SITES. FOG OR STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE BUT IT
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS PICK UP. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ARE AT AGS AND OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER GENERALLY FAVORED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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