180
FXUS62 KCAE 111044
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY WHILE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT, AS ITS AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE,
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH HREF MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISING TO 1.0-1.2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A NOTABLE WEST-
EAST GRADIENT REMAINING DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. DEWPOINT VALUES WILL ALSO SEE A RISE, ONLY MIXING OUT INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST AREAS, EXCEPT LOWER 60S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE
LOW/MID-LEVELS TO SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE MIDLANDS, BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT ACROSS
THE CSRA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE TO HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
TONIGHT, MOISTURE APPEARS TO BECOME MORE LIMITED, RESULTING IN LESS
CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 50S NORTH/WEST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR/OVER THE CWA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS
SPAWNING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
AN BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR
WEATHER AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DESPITE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS, A BIT COOLER ON SATURDAY
LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE UPPER PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH HOW AN QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THEY BOTH SHOW THE PATTERN REMAINING IN
PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE ALSO DISAGREES
ON THE SURFACE PATTERN LATER IN THE LONG TERM BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, DESPITE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE, AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VISIBILITY AND POSSIBLY CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT KOGB THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KOGB COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
MVFR OR IFR LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z. IN ADDITION, STRATUS IS ONCE
AGAIN SPREADING S-SW, AND THIS COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL VFR
CEILINGS AT KCHS/KCUB/KOGB. HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID-LATE MORNING, GETTING CLOSEST TO IMPACTING KOGB. THE
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, SO
HAVE KEPT KAGS/KDNL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED
N/NE FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY SHOWERS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW. BRIEF, EARLY MORNING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE FOG PRONE SITES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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