100
FXUS62 KCAE 111638
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE.
- ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER PWATS AND DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST,
WHILE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUDINESS OCCURS WEST WHERE
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND BETTER MIXING ARE LOCATED. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS,
ALTHOUGH EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY END UP
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S IF CLOUDS HOLD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING SOME ACROSS
THE EAST, WHILE SKIES OVER THE WEST BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH, ALTHOUGH A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER NIGHT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 50S NORTH/WEST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DOES THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALSO INDICATING THAT A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP, RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS. AS A RESULT,
BREEZY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
OFFSHORE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AND
DEVELOP A LOW, BUT TO DIFFERENT DEGREES AND LOCATIONS. DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS EVOLVES, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20% OR LESS) THAT
SOME SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY TO
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF RAIN POTENTIAL, TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
DUE TO THIS FEATURE. OUTSIDE OF THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL, THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS UPPER TROUGHING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH BASES GENERALLY LOW END VFR AROUND 3.5KFT. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, LEAVING VFR
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE LATE TONIGHT SHOWING LOWER
CHANCES FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, SO
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES IS
SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONLY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE DUE TO PATCHY MVFR/IFR
GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT THE USUAL
FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. MAY PLACE A TEMPO GROUND FROM
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR AT LEAST 3SM
BR FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE VFR ON
FRIDAY. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY AT MOST SITES. WINDS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
WITH A RETURN TO NORTHERLY AFTER 14Z FRIDAY EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW. BRIEF, EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT THE FOG PRONE SITES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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