745
FXUS62 KCAE 120112
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
912 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NONE.
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.
GENERALLY STILL HAVE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT MOISTURE HAS
TICKED UP A BIT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH PWATS ABOVE AN
INCH WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
BIT MILDER LOWS, GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN AREA BUT BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DOES THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALSO INDICATING THAT A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP, RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS. AS A RESULT,
BREEZY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
OFFSHORE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AND
DEVELOP A LOW, BUT TO DIFFERENT DEGREES AND LOCATIONS. DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS EVOLVES, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20% OR LESS) THAT
SOME SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY TO
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF RAIN POTENTIAL, TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
DUE TO THIS FEATURE. OUTSIDE OF THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL, THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS UPPER TROUGHING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERNIGHT, THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE AT FOG
PRONE AGS AND OGB. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WE
MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY AT OGB WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. MOS GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR DO NOT SUGGEST
FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT PERSISTENCE AND HIGH CROSSOVER TEMPS WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AUGUSTA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE ITS TYPICAL FOG ISSUES, ALTHOUGH
DRIER AIR OVER THE CSRA LOWERS CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WINDS NORTHEAST BETWEEN
5-10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT, WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
IS LOW WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER BRIEF,
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE SITES
THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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