270
FXUS62 KCAE 121032
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
THE AXIS OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HREF INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY DROP A BIT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH MOST AREAS AROUND 1.00 INCH. MODEL
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE MID
80S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE OMEGA BLOCK UPPER PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OFF THE EAST COAST.
THE OMEGA BLOCK SHOWS SIGNS OF ADJUSTING A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH AND
CONSTRICT THE UPPER RIDGE TO GENERALLY THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MS VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GULF. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AT AROUND
50-70 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
GENERALLY A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A DRY FORECAST THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND SEASONABLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE (ESAT) SHOWS NO
ANOMALOUS VALUES IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED MILD AND DRY
PATTERN. BOTH EC/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF INTO
A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW AND POSSIBLY MOVE INLAND EARLY TO MID
WEEK. PWATS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
MAY TREND A BIT COOLER BY TUE/WED DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WINDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT KAGS AND
KOGB THROUGH ABOUT 13Z, WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT THOSE FOG-PRONE TERMINALS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT, BUT SOME HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT, WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
IS LOW WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER BRIEF,
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE SITES
THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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